Thoughts on AI from the brighter side

Discovery14 October 2026

AI corrects the forecast – but cannot promise sunshine

A new method corrects recurring errors in forecasts two to six weeks ahead. It improves probabilities, not the predictability of weather itself.

Weather beyond next week is hard to predict. On October 14, researchers from Microsoft, MIT, ECMWF and other institutions published a method that improves existing forecasts for the two-to-six-week range. The method is called probabilistic bias correction, or PBC. It learns how a forecast model tends to miss, then adjusts…